Nalmafene


Overspecialization can leave to collective tragedy (Intro p. 111) -- local optimization

Monquee’s Paradox: Machines and humans have opposite strengths and weaknesses (p. 28) The combination of one of us and a phone is “better”? (Like chess centaurs) More Flynn effects in history? Podcast on productivity gains: From 1870 to 1940 -- church to skyscraper, horse cart to automobile. 1940 to 2010? Changes in personal lives, not productivity in business. In 1970s China, build freeway with picks, shovels, wheelbarrows. Since then, big change in speed of information flow Deskilling? “How not to teach people to discover rules” Schwartz (pp 30-31) Agile? Look for general not specific solutions Generalists gain knowledge from different fields. / Is Roger Federer a generalist?What is a generalist? (Chapter 1.) Into physicality, sport, competition, but not trained early in the mechanics of tennis. Patrick Mahombs? Transfer across sports? These athletes are not a walking Medici effect. (Experts from various fields brought together -- and so they spoke with each other. Cross-pollination.) A Renaissance Man would be a Medici effect all by themselves. Motivation? Natural inclination? How do these determine who is a Tiger or a Federer? Long discussion of repetitive stress injury Gains out of the ‘sampling period’ positions a person better (pp 7-8) Most successful experts also belong to a wider world (33) World is Martian tennis (42) Fermi problems -- detailed knowledge is less important than the way of thinking (52) Cutting through bullshit Scott Ambler -- book on agile databases “Everyone needs habits of mind that allow them to dance across disciplines” (Chap. 2 pp. 49-50) Remote Uzbek villagers lacked conceptual reasoning to connect ideas and worlds across contexts (p. 53) More going on here than conceptual reasoning -- Collective farms, violence Like shift from substantive thinking in The Master and His Emissary Guns, Germs, and Steel -- … moderator stopped this digression Jazz vs. Classical Musicians (p. 76) / Easier for jazz artist ? classical than for classical ? jazz (p. 92) Once you learn the fundamentals, you can break the rules But it’s starting backward In cooking you have to know the rules before you break them A lot of rules are not really rules Complex creative classical music -- e.g. Tchaikovsky Jazz is an agile thing People try to turn conceptual problems into procedural ones because its expedient (p. 83) Expedite to solve a problem (find the formula, apply it, don’t understand it) Like Shu - Ha - Ri. Like complexity. Company here -- Kung Fu AI -- math + machine learning to predict virus spread … ??? TAC group at UT analyzed all modes of travel and determined outbreak larger than thought “We’re very good, humans are, at doing the least amount of work we have to, in order to accomplish a task.” (p. 83) Econ majors did the best overall (Ch. 2 p. 48) “Desirable difficulties” (p. 85, Chap. 4) that “make learning challenging, slower, frustrating in short term, better in long term” Book A Mind for Numbers -- buy for your kids Scrummaster discipline -- solicit rather than tell or hint; want everyone interacting on their own, taking responsibility on their own Limiting belief that team won’t discover way to do it on its own Show customers mistakes so they give you feedback … Learning w/o “hints” (interleaving) yields better results later -- what does this mean for feedback loops, when you should measure (ch. 4) / Hints undermine learning (p. 87) / Students don’t view mathematics as a system, but as a set of procedures (84) / The importance of struggle. “Effective” is relative. Do you want short- or long-term benefits? Teachers who pulled the books out of you. Slowly you realize where the clues were. Deep learning -- the importance of intervals (try something, go away, come back, try again) rather than “chunking” (Ch. 5) Deep Work by Cal Newport He doesn’t talk about emotional attachment to your solution (Ch. 5) Evaluating a range of options BEFORE letting intuition reign is a trick for the wicked world (p. 112) “Far transfer” also sounds like what is needed for artificial general intelligence (p. 98) If only 30% of people get to a solution with one analogy (10% with no analogy) they’re different how? Are those generalists? (Tumor treatment) -- (p. 105-106, Ch. 5) A good (elegant) answer can still be wrong Once “super intelligence” happens, we won’t have any choice Anyone who is specialized will be obsolesced AI as legal assistant Product managers must be generalists -- and able to engage with specialists How can the generalist make best use of the specialists? Human today, computers soon A generalist background makes a better specialist Can’t I just get a head start in everything? Isn’t generalization getting a head start. Do stuff that builds the scaffolding for how to think Also nutritional, social, etc. -- what enables children to learn? Kepler’s ever-deeper analogies and the 5 Whys. (Ch. 5) Made me think of Triz Keppler fastidiously documented his thinking process (102) Analogical thinking Do model stories help us to the “outside view” (p. 109) Need model stories for each of the pointing values? Not just one model story. You are supposed to have multiple model stories -- three or four for each of the sizes, so then you can see what is a good analogy Keppler kept really good notes. That’s deliberate practice. What scientists do? Disagreement. (Scribe’s note: Notebooks like this were a common practice in the Enlightenment?) Inside view bias (p. 108) Sanity checks. Get other views. Follow analogies to the outside view (113) Ambiguous sorting tasks (114-115) Distant analogies best for idea generation (112) Innovation games Can you teach anyone to be a generalist? Yes, but you have to start early -- sampling to gravitate towards things that you like. Also, late in life, just start spreading out. It’s slow. Puts you a couple of years behind. (?) Fear is a big factor. Van Gogh example in Chapter 6 Maybe the book should be titled why generalists SHOULD triumph in a specialized world. Grit (p.133) Fail fast Godin’s The Dip -- quit early, not when you have invested a lot We agreed to skip meeting on 3/19 and finish discussing this book on 4/2. This avoids conflicts with Spring Break and South By Southwest. Discussion on 4/2 will begin with five stickies from 3/5 the moderator held over. 4/2/2020: P 245-257 Challenger - Engineers are trained that “Data is good” - this situation contradicted that view. Relevant data - the filters precluded relevant data from being considered. Cultural aberration. Earlier NASA had been data-driven and had TWO comm channels It became impossible to stop the launch without data! Managerial culture - unacceptable to give a gut instinct -- “something wrong here that I can’t articulate.” Need formal quantitative data, or you are heretical, can’t change the trajectory of actions without it. This works fine in a “kind” universe where what’s gone before is a good predictor of what comes next The problem wasn’t biased to protect lives. It was primarily financial. From the quality side, no hunches, got to have data. Data sustains your effort and focus. P173 Innocentive - Ch.8: Big innovation happens when an outsider...reframes the problem and unlocks the solution. How do you encourage this kind of outsider intervention? You can’t have only visionaries / generalists, you need specialists too. Researchers who have “midnight project” time have opportunities to innovate and create breakthroughs. Less creativity when you’re being watched. InnoCentive at Eli Lili - collected problems that had stymied their scientists. More than 1/3 were solved (173) But that means ? was done with specialists! Einstein was a “frog” who went deep, not a bird. Darwin was a bird?! This is often an issue of size/structure of organization - success can breed inflexibility. P200 Frogs, birds, and polymaths Are these all the innovators there are? Don’t think so…but it’s a handy taxonomy But we don’t like it. Frogs go deep, birds go high, polymaths go broad and can go deep Nintendo was assembled out of spare parts...awesome example of repurposing Juxtaposition of ideas from disparate fields is very common! But he used a “formula” to decide how to put things together. His personal view was the secret formula. “Creativity requires limits.” Quitting is discouraged in our culture, but it’s necessary to recognize that you’ve missed the vein or mined it out, or just lost your inspiration/passion. P142 Experts make poor forecasters P 219 - “Specialists can remain undefeated while never getting it right.” It’s about the spin. Pundits must go out on a limb or their advice isn’t interesting. Thinking in bets: sometimes we make good decisions but don’t get the desired outcomes. The impossible occurs 15% of the time. Max Brooks (son of Mel) - World War Z - it helps to have an enemy. Last responsible moment, but be prepared in a general way for black swans This is being antifragile, IF we learn from CV19! There are lots of remedies short of a full-blown ventilator… In fact, we have many brittle systems. For Korea, Singapore, CV19 is a “kind” situation, SARS gave them the incentive to prepare. The German infrastructure was better prepared to deal with CV19 even though they are inundated with Syrian refugees. AND their population complied with social distancing. p.227 Hypotheses in need of testing - active open-mindedness really encourages falsification (refutation) of hypotheses. E.g. Einstein opposed Quantum Mechanics so strenuously it became very robust Best leaders throw out an idea and asked all to find what was missing Popovich - people are willing to be wrong. Also -- incomplete. Versus selection bias! Chain of communication == colocation? Page 262 Unstructured communication Doesn’t mean “groupthink” Informal, not the same as chain of command. Also provides a friendlier / less stressful way to test hypotheses. (1-1 and small group) We seem to be doing pretty well here tonight even though we’re not colocated. But we also don’t have any formal reporting structure here either. And it’s low-risk environment. Has the potential to become wicked. (Kind here means predictable, well-structured). Agile is adaptive to wicked environments. Mutual trust is NOT incompatible with wicked. “Why greatness cannot be planned.” e.g. how would you prepare yourself to find the optimal life partner?

Monquee’s Paradox: Machines and humans have opposite strengths and weaknesses (p. 28) The combination of one of us and a phone is “better”? (Like chess centaurs) More Flynn effects in history? Podcast on productivity gains: From 1870 to 1940 -- church to skyscraper, horse cart to automobile. 1940 to 2010? Changes in personal lives, not productivity in business. In 1970s China, build freeway with picks, shovels, wheelbarrows. Since then, big change in speed of information flow Deskilling? “How not to teach people to discover rules” Schwartz (pp 30-31) Agile? Look for general not specific solutions Generalists gain knowledge from different fields. / Is Roger Federer a generalist?What is a generalist? (Chapter 1.) Into physicality, sport, competition, but not trained early in the mechanics of tennis. Patrick Mahombs? Transfer across sports? These athletes are not a walking Medici effect. (Experts from various fields brought together -- and so they spoke with each other. Cross-pollination.) A Renaissance Man would be a Medici effect all by themselves. Motivation? Natural inclination? How do these determine who is a Tiger or a Federer? Long discussion of repetitive stress injury Gains out of the ‘sampling period’ positions a person better (pp 7-8) Most successful experts also belong to a wider world (33) World is Martian tennis (42) Fermi problems -- detailed knowledge is less important than the way of thinking (52) Cutting through bullshit Scott Ambler -- book on agile databases “Everyone needs habits of mind that allow them to dance across disciplines” (Chap. 2 pp. 49-50) Remote Uzbek villagers lacked conceptual reasoning to connect ideas and worlds across contexts (p. 53) More going on here than conceptual reasoning -- Collective farms, violence Like shift from substantive thinking in The Master and His Emissary Guns, Germs, and Steel -- … moderator stopped this digression Jazz vs. Classical Musicians (p. 76) / Easier for jazz artist ? classical than for classical ? jazz (p. 92) Once you learn the fundamentals, you can break the rules But it’s starting backward In cooking you have to know the rules before you break them A lot of rules are not really rules Complex creative classical music -- e.g. Tchaikovsky Jazz is an agile thing People try to turn conceptual problems into procedural ones because its expedient (p. 83) Expedite to solve a problem (find the formula, apply it, don’t understand it) Like Shu - Ha - Ri. Like complexity. Company here -- Kung Fu AI -- math + machine learning to predict virus spread … ??? TAC group at UT analyzed all modes of travel and determined outbreak larger than thought “We’re very good, humans are, at doing the least amount of work we have to, in order to accomplish a task.” (p. 83) Econ majors did the best overall (Ch. 2 p. 48) “Desirable difficulties” (p. 85, Chap. 4) that “make learning challenging, slower, frustrating in short term, better in long term” Book A Mind for Numbers -- buy for your kids Scrummaster discipline -- solicit rather than tell or hint; want everyone interacting on their own, taking responsibility on their own Limiting belief that team won’t discover way to do it on its own Show customers mistakes so they give you feedback … Learning w/o “hints” (interleaving) yields better results later -- what does this mean for feedback loops, when you should measure (ch. 4) / Hints undermine learning (p. 87) / Students don’t view mathematics as a system, but as a set of procedures (84) / The importance of struggle. “Effective” is relative. Do you want short- or long-term benefits? Teachers who pulled the books out of you. Slowly you realize where the clues were. Deep learning -- the importance of intervals (try something, go away, come back, try again) rather than “chunking” (Ch. 5) Deep Work by Cal Newport He doesn’t talk about emotional attachment to your solution (Ch. 5) Evaluating a range of options BEFORE letting intuition reign is a trick for the wicked world (p. 112) “Far transfer” also sounds like what is needed for artificial general intelligence (p. 98) If only 30% of people get to a solution with one analogy (10% with no analogy) they’re different how? Are those generalists? (Tumor treatment) -- (p. 105-106, Ch. 5) A good (elegant) answer can still be wrong Once “super intelligence” happens, we won’t have any choice Anyone who is specialized will be obsolesced AI as legal assistant Product managers must be generalists -- and able to engage with specialists How can the generalist make best use of the specialists? Human today, computers soon A generalist background makes a better specialist Can’t I just get a head start in everything? Isn’t generalization getting a head start. Do stuff that builds the scaffolding for how to think Also nutritional, social, etc. -- what enables children to learn? Kepler’s ever-deeper analogies and the 5 Whys. (Ch. 5) Made me think of Triz Keppler fastidiously documented his thinking process (102) Analogical thinking Do model stories help us to the “outside view” (p. 109) Need model stories for each of the pointing values? Not just one model story. You are supposed to have multiple model stories -- three or four for each of the sizes, so then you can see what is a good analogy Keppler kept really good notes. That’s deliberate practice. What scientists do? Disagreement. (Scribe’s note: Notebooks like this were a common practice in the Enlightenment?) Inside view bias (p. 108) Sanity checks. Get other views. Follow analogies to the outside view (113) Ambiguous sorting tasks (114-115) Distant analogies best for idea generation (112) Innovation games Can you teach anyone to be a generalist? Yes, but you have to start early -- sampling to gravitate towards things that you like. Also, late in life, just start spreading out. It’s slow. Puts you a couple of years behind. (?) Fear is a big factor. Van Gogh example in Chapter 6 Maybe the book should be titled why generalists SHOULD triumph in a specialized world. Grit (p.133) Fail fast

Godin’s The Dip -- quit early, not when you have invested a lot

4/2/2020: P 245-257 Challenger - Engineers are trained that “Data is good” - this situation contradicted that view.

Relevant data - the filters precluded relevant data from being considered.

Cultural aberration.

Earlier NASA had been data-driven and had TWO comm channels It became impossible to stop the launch without data!

Managerial culture - unacceptable to give a gut instinct -- “something wrong here that I can’t articulate.”

Need formal quantitative data, or you are heretical, can’t change the trajectory of actions without it.

This works fine in a “kind” universe where what’s gone before is a good predictor of what comes next

The problem wasn’t biased to protect lives. It was primarily financial.

From the quality side, no hunches, got to have data. Data sustains your effort and focus.

P173 Innocentive - Ch.8: Big innovation happens when an outsider...reframes the problem and unlocks the solution. How do you encourage this kind of outsider intervention? You can’t have only visionaries / generalists, you need specialists too.

Researchers who have “midnight project” time have opportunities to innovate and create breakthroughs.

Less creativity when you’re being watched. InnoCentive at Eli Lili - collected problems that had stymied their scientists. More than 1/3 were solved (173) But that means ? was done with specialists! Einstein was a “frog” who went deep, not a bird. Darwin was a bird?! This is often an issue of size/structure of organization - success can breed inflexibility. P200 Frogs, birds, and polymaths Are these all the innovators there are? Don’t think so…but it’s a handy taxonomy But we don’t like it. Frogs go deep, birds go high, polymaths go broad and can go deep Nintendo was assembled out of spare parts...awesome example of repurposing Juxtaposition of ideas from disparate fields is very common! But he used a “formula” to decide how to put things together. His personal view was the secret formula. “Creativity requires limits.” Quitting is discouraged in our culture, but it’s necessary to recognize that you’ve missed the vein or mined it out, or just lost your inspiration/passion. P142 Experts make poor forecasters P 219 - “Specialists can remain undefeated while never getting it right.” It’s about the spin. Pundits must go out on a limb or their advice isn’t interesting. Thinking in bets: sometimes we make good decisions but don’t get the desired outcomes. The impossible occurs 15% of the time. Max Brooks (son of Mel) - World War Z - it helps to have an enemy. Last responsible moment, but be prepared in a general way for black swans This is being antifragile, IF we learn from CV19! There are lots of remedies short of a full-blown ventilator… In fact, we have many brittle systems. For Korea, Singapore, CV19 is a “kind” situation, SARS gave them the incentive to prepare. The German infrastructure was better prepared to deal with CV19 even though they are inundated with Syrian refugees. AND their population complied with social distancing. p.227 Hypotheses in need of testing - active open-mindedness really encourages falsification (refutation) of hypotheses. E.g. Einstein opposed Quantum Mechanics so strenuously it became very robust Best leaders throw out an idea and asked all to find what was missing Popovich - people are willing to be wrong. Also -- incomplete. Versus selection bias! Chain of communication == colocation? Page 262 Unstructured communication Doesn’t mean “groupthink” Informal, not the same as chain of command. Also provides a friendlier / less stressful way to test hypotheses. (1-1 and small group) We seem to be doing pretty well here tonight even though we’re not colocated. But we also don’t have any formal reporting structure here either. And it’s low-risk environment. Has the potential to become wicked. (Kind here means predictable, well-structured). Agile is adaptive to wicked environments. Mutual trust is NOT incompatible with wicked. “Why greatness cannot be planned.” e.g. how would you prepare yourself to find the optimal life partner?